Bad Moon Risin'

“…I see the bad moon risin'. I see trouble on the way. I see earthquakes and lightnin'. I see bad times today…” Bad Moon Risin’…Creedence Clearwater Revival…Words & Music by John Fogerty…A few days ahead of being sworn in, no one knows what Donald Trump will do, he may not know himself.  As I’ve said before, Trump reminds me of a garbage can raiding racoon—wily, opportunistic, well-honed survival skills, territorial, and without an ounce of scruples. Everyone (well, almost everyone) understands there’s a vast difference between campaigning and serving as President. Campaigning, particularly for president, is a dog show, everyone perfectly groomed and on their best behavior for a few minutes, telling voters and donors exactly what they want to hear. But nobody watching the show will really learn if the dog can hunt or lead a blind person down a busy street. Despite four years as president and eight years squarely in the public eye, no one seems to really know Donald Trump. Is he the shallow, greedy person, quick to deal cards off the bottom of the deck, prone to lie when the truth would do him as much good? Or is he that one person we all know, making up for confidence with bluster, clumsy, socially inept, limited span of attention, prone to say the worst possible thing at the worst possible time, and all the while mistaking attention for respect?  I doubt anyone, even those closest to him really know how Trump thinks. He’s obviously not Henry Kissinger, an analyst and student of history, nor does he have any noticeable, strongly held beliefs much beyond life is just a monopoly game of greed and staying in the spotlight. Trump won the presidency by a comfortable margin thanks to swing/crossover voters, but they voted on specific issues. They’re not culture warriors, Trump worshippers, nor did they vote on emotion. Every credible exit poll shows they voted primarily on one question-- are you better off than you were 5 years ago? The election was about groceries, gasoline, crime and the southern border, but the honeymoon will be short lived. There’s an old joke about the dog chasing the car—what does he do with it when he catches it, he can’t drive…Trump has promised everything to everybody and his MAGA voters are not a patient lot. MAGA were the foot soldiers, the infantry of the Republican party, playing the same role black voters do for the democrats, rain or shine. There’s already been one “dust up” between Elon Musk and The House Freedom Caucus over the H1-B visas for the tech industry. Musk donated millions to the Trump campaign, and it wasn’t charity- he’s going to call in his markers and there’ll be conflict with MAGA. It’ll be tricky for Trump to find balance between the two, and it’ll be the first test of whether the two alpha males, Trump and Musk, can exist in the same space. The tech industry needs mathematicians and software engineers not liberal arts degrees, and unless American high schools and colleges can supply them, they’re going to come from Asia. Trump’s first year promises to be busy and not short on fireworks. MAGA wants an end to FBI intel gathering, but Trump may feel differently after being the target of two assassination attempts. Who do they think runs intel on threats to public officials? We just finished counting the bodies from two politically motivated attacks by deranged people and I can guarantee another batch is waiting in the on-deck circle. This is not the time to hamper intelligence gathering, it’s the time to put it on steroids. His initial cabinet appointments have a lot of questionable people and even if they get past congressional vetting, they’ll have a short shelf life on the job where they’ll have to handle real-world problems. To put it simply, Trump wanted the job, he got the job, and I wish him luck because I think he’s painted himself in a corner….