Fortunate Son

“…some folks are born silver spoon in hand, Lord, don't they help themselves, Lord? But when the taxman comes to the door, Lord, the house looks like a rummage sale, yeah. It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no millionaire's son …” Creedence Clearwater Revival, Fortunate Son…. America’s favorite fortunate son, or least favorite, depending on your point of view is currently on trial in NYC. So far, I’m a little surprised; not by what’s happening, but by what isn’t happening. Trump has called for protests, but there haven’t been any, the faithful have stayed away, it’s business as usual in midtown Manhattan. Inside the courtroom, Trump, a guy with a notoriously short attention span, is sitting in court silently, and it must be hell for him. One side of me thought he’d be combative, doing everything he could to bait the judge into doing something that would amount to reversible error, and get him a mistrial, which would translate into another delay. But I’ve changed my mind, I think he’s got a different plan, a narrow, risky one. To me, he’s almost “mailing this one in”, accepting he’s going to get a guilty verdict and not worrying about it. Being a convicted felon won’t hurt him with his MAGA base who see him as the only thing standing between American values and anarchy. If anything, his legal trials help his image of being the lone individual fighting a government they don’t trust. He’s completely disregarding the popular vote which he knows he’ll lose by lopsided numbers, and going all in on the Electoral College, and in particular, the swing states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada & Michigan-states that were red but have become “purple” due to population shift. It’s an interesting approach, but he’s forgetting the 30/40/30 formula that controls recent elections—30% of voters love Trump, 40% of swing voters can go either way, 30% of are staunch Biden supporters. Inside that 40% are people who aren’t going to vote for a convicted felon and large numbers of female voters incensed by the abortion question. It's an interesting approach, but it’s a scorched earth approach and it comes with a downside for Trump-win and you’re home free, lose and you’re in a world of shit. By disregarding the popular vote, he disregards the down ballot effect, and the House and Senate will probably both have Democratic majorities to go with the Democratic president. Then there’s that small matter of those pesky trials, don’t expect a pardon from Joe Biden….