Trump, Dylan, & a Blue Dog

“…Yes, and how many times can a man turn his head, and pretend that he just doesn't see? The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind, the answer is blowin' in the wind…” Blowin in the Wind. Bob Dylan… On January 14th, before the Iowa Primary, I wrote a tongue-in-cheek piece called “A Bridge Bet”. It refers to an old joke told by a professional gambler named Jimmy Jones. He was a horse better and defined a “Bridge Bet” as picking a pair of 50-1 longshots and betting the family farm on them. If either horse won, you were a rich man. If neither won, you just walked down to the nearest bridge and jumped off. In the “Bridge Bet” article, I made some predictions (more like guesses) that neither Trump nor Biden would be their party’s candidate in November. As Trump, propelled by MAGA voters, and dodging multiple criminal trials, began to bulldoze his way through the primaries, I began looking at local bridges, and questioning my “gut instinct”. But, yesterday, as they read out “guilty on all counts” I re-thought some things. Prior to yesterday’s guilty verdict in NYC, Trump wasn’t exactly cruising along towards November. Despite the MAGA core, who’d vote for him if he was in federal prison eating slop off a metal tray, the support from big money donors, swing voters, and mainstream Republicans was “soft”, never quite sure if Trump’s policies were worth the baggage they come with. In this year’s Georgia primary, Nikki Haley got 278,000 votes after she’d folded her campaign. That may not sound like a lot, but when you look at the razor thin margins of the 2024 election results in swing states, it becomes a lot. Trump’s base was a solid 30%, but 30% doesn’t win an election, you need the “swing voters”. It’s like Bill Clinton said, “…you can’t argue with arithmetic…”   There’s an old trick in homicide investigation- pay special attention to what’s not being said, and what you’re not seeing- many times it’ll give you the answer. In the aftermath of yesterday’s verdict, there were no angry crowds taking to the streets to support Trump, and the overall media attitude was muted. I’m guessing behind the scenes, the political kingmakers and mega dollar donors of the Republican Party, who never wanted a Trump vs Biden rematch, are quietly exploring ways out. Everybody is being too quiet, there’s something in the air- maybe a floor fight at the convention, a backroom deal, open rebellion, who knows, but the power brokers have something up their sleeve. Getting rid of Trump presents all kind of special problems- the 30% MAGA base might stay home, they remind me of the old Blue Dog Democrats in the deep south during the 40’s and 50’s. They’re loyal to Trump, and they’d vote for a blue dog before they’d vote for Joe Biden. If they don’t stay home, they’d probably write in the blue dog.  Before the Republican National Convention in July, the Supreme Court will deliver their ruling on presidential immunity, and that presents a whole new set of Trump issues. I have no idea where this is headed, but something’s in the wind, and if I was Nikki Haley, I wouldn’t unpack my bags just yet….