You're So Vain

“You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht. Your hat strategically dipped below one eye, your scarf, it was apricot. You had one eye in the mirror as you watched yourself gavotte, and all the girls dreamed that they'd be your partner, they’d be your partner, and you’re so vain …”  You’re So Vain… Carly Simon…Understand vanity, and you’ll understand former President Donald J. Trump. It’s all about him, a childish need to be the center of attention in any situation, the picture on every front page, the first word out of everybody’s mouth, you have big buildings with your name on them, a glam, ex-model wife, everyone envies and adores you- the only thing left is to be president because that guarantees you’ll always be the center of attention worldwide. Aside from the buildings, Trump shows few of the trappings of a wealthy man, he doesn’t collect exotic cars or fine artwork, travel the world, or appear as a guest lecturer at prestigious universities. He’s more akin to Howard Hughes, eccentric, few if any friends, exists on McDonalds Big Macs, and prowls the halls at night sending belligerent, insulting text messages. He has very limited, if any loyalty to anyone, describing soldiers killed in battle as “losers” and “suckers” and describing his MAGA followers as, “basement dwellers” which is probably as Mark Salter wrote in “O: A Presidential Novel, “politicians pride themselves on their understanding that human nature can stand only so much improvement…” The 2024 presidential election is, and will continue to be, a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, ultimately decided in the electoral college by six states, and a group of swing voters in the middle. Harris easily wins the “likeability” factor, but I’m not sure that alone will win the election in the end. She’s going to be attacked relentlessly from Republicans with two simple messages: (1) you can’t tax your way into prosperity, and (2) you had 3 years to do something with the southern border. The swing voters in the middle don’t like Donald Trump, the name calling, the election denying and January 6th, but the “asshole factor” comes into play. Everybody has worked for at least one total asshole, but the asshole factor goes like this- I hate the boss, I don’t want to talk to him, hang around with him, but I’ve got to admit he's got the place running smoothly, the pay raises and bonuses are rolling in, and the job is getting done. This is Trump’s main appeal to voters. Most days, they’d like to bust him in the chops over his insults and goofball conspiracy theories, but they’re not willing to go broke to prove a point. The economy remains the key to the election for the simplest reason- it’s our survival. Inflation and taxes are Trump’s bread and butter. Independent polls tell us a majority of swing voters think Trump can do a better job on inflation, taxes and overall economic issues. Not surprisingly, he gets higher marks on crime and the border. Harris owns the minority, youth, and female votes and will get heavy turnout over the abortion issue. She’ll win the popular vote by a large margin, because of the population centers in blue states, and odds say she’ll be the next president. But there’s still a way the poster boy for vanity can win a tight election, and if he does, it’ll be because of the “asshole factor”.  Next time, we’ll flip the table and figure out Kamala Harris…